SUN Jinjin 1 , MA Mingze 2 , CHEN Qiang 1 , LI Tian 1 , LI Xiaodong 3 , LIU Ying 4 , LIU Jingyu 3
  • 1. Third Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou,Liaoning 121001, P.R. China;
  • 2. Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, Liaoning 121001, P.R. China;
  • 3. First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou,Liaoning 121001, P.R. China;
  • 4. Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine,Inner Mongolia Medical University Affiliated Hospital, Huhehot, Inner Mongolia 010030, P.R. China;
LIU Jingyu, Email: liujingyu0416@163.com
Nomogram; predictive Model; viral Pneumonia; diabetes Mellitus
10.7507/1671-6205.202410071
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Objective This study aimed to construct a Nomogram predictive model to assess the prognosis of patients with viral pneumonia complicated by diabetes mellitus.Methods We retrospectively collected data from patients with viral pneumonia who visited our hospital from January 2023 to February 2024 and divided them into diabetes and non-diabetes groups based on the presence of diabetes. Clinical data were collected and intergroup differences were analyzed. Subsequently, factors with statistical significance (P<0.05) were selected for univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis in the diabetes group to identify risk factors affecting patient survival. Based on the regression analysis results, a linear model was constructed to predict the survival risk of patients. Additionally, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) were plotted to assess the predictive accuracy and clinical net benefit of the model.Results The study found significant intergroup differences in age (age), cough, dyspnea, respiratory rate at admission, heart rate, body temperature, and laboratory test results (including blood glucose Glu, glycated hemoglobin HbA1c, neutrophil ratio Neu, C-reactive protein Crp, etc.). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis confirmed that age (age), B-type natriuretic peptide (Bnp), neutrophil ratio (Neu), and lactate (Lac) are independent risk factors affecting the survival of patients with viral pneumonia and diabetes.The constructed nomogram prediction model was evaluated. The calibration curve demonstrated a high degree of consistency between the predicted probabilities and actual outcomes, with a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow test result (P>0.05). Decision curve analysis further showed that the model yielded no significant clinical net benefit at extreme probability thresholds, whereas it provided substantial clinical net benefit across all other threshold ranges. Collectively, these findings indicate that the model exhibits high predictive accuracy and holds significant value for clinical application. Conclusions Age, serum B-type natriuretic peptide, neutrophil ratio, and lactate are independent risk factors for the survival of patients with viral pneumonia complicated by diabetes. The Nomogram predictive model constructed based on these factors has clinical value for prognosis assessment.

Citation： SUN Jinjin, MA Mingze, CHEN Qiang, LI Tian, LI Xiaodong, LIU Ying, LIU Jingyu. A Study on the Nomogram Prediction Model for Survival Assessment of Patients with Viral Pneumonia Complicated by Diabetes. Chinese Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, 2025, 24(8): 564-569. doi: 10.7507/1671-6205.202410071 Copy

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