Objective The aim of this study was to describe the trends in the burden of breast cancer in women of all ages in China from 1990 to 2021, compare it with the global burden of breast cancer in women, and predict the burden of disease in the next 15 years. Methods Based on the open data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) in 2021, the incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of breast cancer among women in China and the world were analyzed. Joinpoint was used to calculate annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) to reflect the changing trend of disease burden. An autoregressive composite moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the disease burden of breast cancer in women from 2022 to 2036. Results From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of female breast cancer in China showed an increasing trend, with an average annual increase of 2.400 7% and 2.334 8%, respectively, and the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) showed a decreasing trend. The average annual decline was 0.290 0% and 0.198 3%, respectively. Meanwhile, ASIR and ASPR of global female breast cancer also showed an increasing trend, with an average annual increase of 0.474 9% and 0.3445 2% respectively, while ASMR and ASDR showed a decreasing trend, with an average annual decrease of 0.425 2% and 0.321 8% respectively. Among them, there were differences in the impact of age on the burden of female breast cancer. The peak of ASIR and ASPR appeared in the age group of 50 to 69 years old, and generally increased with the increase of age, and then decreased when reaching the peak. ASMR and ASDR increased with age. In the following 15 years, the prevalence of breast cancer in women in China and globally showed an increasing trend, while the mortality rate showed a decreasing trend. Conclusion From the analysis of the disease burden from 1990 to 2021, breast cancer has a huge harm to women, and the incidence of young and middle-aged women is high, the death rate of middle-aged and elderly women is high, and the disease time is long, which brings a heavy psychological and economic burden to patients and society. From the trend forecast for the next 15 years, the prevalence of breast cancer in women in China and the world will increase, while the mortality rate will decrease slightly, but the decrease is not large, which will bring huge public health challenges and put higher requirements on the prevention and control of the disease. To reduce the disease burden of breast cancer, comprehensive strategies for disease control are needed, including prevention of risk factors at the primary care level, screening of at-risk populations, and quality medical services.
目的 评估中医药临床研究是否与我国主要疾病负担相关。 方法 首先从1999年－2004年出版的13种中医、中西医结合杂志中手工检索出随机对照试验（RCT），并提取出杂志名称、出版年限、治疗的疾病类别及样本含量等数据。然后采用死亡率和伤残调整寿命年（DALY）作为衡量标准，统计2002年我国疾病负担前30位病因的RCT数量，采用秩相关分析这些疾病负担与发表的中医药RCT及其受试者数量的关系。 结果 最终确认7 422个RCT，约38%的RCT来自于3种国家级杂志。这些RCT覆盖了我国疾病负担中的主要病种，其中4 280个RCT（57.7%）研究前30位病因合并产生的42个病种，只有3个病种（7%）没有任何RCT研究。采用DALY得到的相关系数分别是0.108（P=0.569）、0.092（P=0.628），通过死亡率产生的相关系数分别是0.453（P=0.012）、0.536（P=0.002）。 结论 中医药RCT与采用死亡率衡量的疾病负担明显相关，但采用DALY分析却未发现二者存在相关性。中医药临床研究可能更注重死亡率高的病种，一定程度上忽略了DALY衡量的疾病负担。
Objective To analyze the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and its trend attributed to household air pollution (HAP) from solid fuels in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods Using the data derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), including mortality rates, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), age-standardized mortality rates, age-standardized DALY rates, annual percentage change (APC), and average annual percentage change rate (AAPC), we analyzed the CVD burden and its trend attributed to HAP in China from 1990 to 2019. Results In 2019, HAP in China resulted in 227 000 deaths and 5 182 200 DALYs of CVD; the mortality rate attributed to HAP was 15.96 per 100 000, and the DALY rate was 364.34 per 100 000. In 2019, the age-standardized mortality and DALY rates in China were 12.52 and 262.65 per 100 000, respectively, which were lower than the rates globally, and the rates for males were higher than those for females (13.90 vs. 11.32 per 100 000, 291.76 vs. 234.50 per 100 000). In 2019, both mortality and DALY rates attributed to HAP increased with age, peaking in the age groups of 95 plus and 85-89, respectively. From 1990 to 2019 in China, both age-standardized mortality and DALY rates of CVD attributed to HAP showed a downward trend over time. The average annual percentage change rate (AAPC) of the age-standardized mortality rate was −6.0% (95%CI: −6.2% to −5.8%), and the APCC of the age-standardized DALY rate was −5.8% (95%CI: −6.1% to −5.6%). The burden of the CVD subclass also showed a downward trend. Conclusion From 1990 to 2019, the burden of CVD attributed to HAP from solid fuels in China shows a significant downward trend, with sex and age differences. Females and the elderly are the key groups of disease burden, so effective interventions should be taken for these groups.
【摘要】 目的 调查汶川地震伤残人员的日常生活活动能力(ADL),分析影响伤残人员日常生活活动能力的相关因素,为汶川地震伤残人员的社区康复提供依据。方法 利用ADL量表对283名汶川地震伤残人员的日常生活活动能力进行测量。结果 283名伤残人员地震伤残人员ADL平均得分为85.08±14.73,其中20.8%ADL完全正常,71.0%的伤残人员ADL日常生活能力轻度障碍,8.2%ADL中重度障碍；经多因素分析,地震伤残人员ADL的主要影响因素依次是:伤残程度、伤残合并疾病、伤残并发症、是否参与残疾人组织或相关活动(Plt;0.05)。结论 伤残人员ADL关键在于残疾程度,避免伤残并发症和二次残疾的发生,控制伤残合并疾病的发生,增加伤残人员的社会参与度,均有利于伤残人员ADL的提高。
ObjectiveTo analyze the disease burden and temporal trends of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) attributable to air pollution in China from 1990 to 2021. MethodsUtilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), we assessed the burden of COPD attributable to air pollution in China through metrics including death counts, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR), annual percentage change (APC), and average annual percentage change (AAPC). A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was employed to project future trends in COPD burden attributable to air pollution. ResultsIn 2021, China’s ASMR and ASDR for COPD attributable to air pollution were 32.57 and 533.84 per 100 000 population, respectively, exceeding global averages. From 1990 to 2021, both ASMR and ASDR exhibited significant declining trends, with AAPCs of −5.24% (95% CI −5.78% to −4.70%) and −5.28% (95% CI −5.75% to −4.81%), respectively. The burden intensified with advancing age and was disproportionately higher among males compared to females. BAPC projections indicate a continued decline in COPD burden from 2022 to 2035, with ASMR expected to decrease from 56.40 to 23.02 per 100 000 and ASDR from 900.14 to 408.64 per 100 000. Conclusion Despite sustained reductions in the burden of COPD attributable to air pollution in China from 1990 to 2021, with further declines anticipated through 2035, national rates remain elevated relative to global benchmarks. Male and elderly populations bear the highest burden, underscoring the urgency for targeted interventions to mitigate air pollution exposure and address health disparities in vulnerable demographics.
ObjectivesTo estimate the latest burden of disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for liver cancer in China and the long-term trend, and to make future prediction.MethodsBased on the visualization platform of Global Burden of Disease 2016, data on the DALYs for liver cancer in China was extracted. The very recent status in 2016 and the previous trend from 1990 to 2016 were described, using annualized rate of change (ARC). The burden from 2017 to 2050 was further predicted by combining the ARC and the Chinese population data projected by the United Nation.ResultsIn 2016, the total DALYs for liver cancer in China was estimated as 11 539 000 person years (accounting for 54.6% of the global burden), and years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) contributed 98.9% and 1.1%, respectively. The age-standardized DALY rate was 844.1 per 100 000 (3.0 times of the global average) and the male-to-female ratio was 3.4. The DALY rate continuously increased from 1990–2016 (ARC=0.57%), particularly in recent 5 years (ARC=1.75%). Among the DALYs for all cancers, liver cancer contributed approximately 20% and constantly remained as the top 2 (ranking as the number one before year 2005). There were inverse trends in gender, with increasing in males and decreasing in females (ARC was 0.77% and –0.11%, respectively). Hepatitis B infection continually kept the leading cause of DALYs for liver cancer (accounting for nearly 57%), and the DALY rate was gradually increasing (ARC=0.43%). Although the peak age of DALY rate was stable at 65to 69 years, the peak age of the DALYs changed from 55 to 59 years in 1990 to 60 ~ 64 years in 2016. In 2050, the estimated DALYs for liver cancer in China will reach 14.37 million person years, 20.0% more than that in 2017.ConclusionsThe DALYs caused by liver cancer in China exceeds the overall burden of all other countries in the world, and accounts for 1/5 of DALYs for all cancers in local population. The burden in males has been continuously rising, and the leading cause remained unchanged as hepatitis B infection. With population aging, the DALYs for liver cancer in China will be incessant to increase, suggesting the necessity to implement continuous effort in risk factors prevention (e.g. hepatitis B infection), and efficient management in high risk population of liver cancer.
ObjectiveThis study intends to analyze the changing disease burden of mood disorders in China from 1990 to 2021 and project the epidemiological trends in the next two decades. MethodsThis study uses data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database on three mood disorders in China (bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, and dysthymia) from 1990 to 2021. The indicators such as age-standardized number of diseases and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used to explore the characteristics of time, gender, and age distribution of the disease burden of mental disorders. The BAPC model was used to predict the disease burden in the next two decades. ResultsIn 2021, the number of cases of dysthymia, MDD, and BD in China was 27.84 million, 26.0 million, and 2.85 million, with an increase of 73.24%, 38.33%, and 36.79% compared with 1990, respectively. In 2021, DALYs of dysthymic disorder, MDD and BD were 2.67 million, 5.2 million and 0.61 million person-years, which increased by 71.45%, 34.29% and 34.76% compared with 1990, respectively. The burden of mood disorders is heavier among women and the middle-aged and elderly population. In addition, it is expected that ASPR and ASDR of dysthymia will continue to increase after a brief decline, MDD will show a downward trend, while BD will show a slight upward trend in the next two decades. ConclusionThe disease burden of mood disorders in China remains substantial, with dysthymia and BD showing persistent upward tendency. More resources should be invested in mental health care.
ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological burden and change trend of five sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in China from 1990 to 2019. MethodsThe estimated numbers and standardized rates of STIs incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in China and other regions were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The epidemic burden and change trend of STIs in China were compared and evaluated. ResultsIn 2019, STIs affected about 242 million people in China, resulting in 173 million new cases and 350 000 person years of DALY losses. Compared with 1990, the prevalence and incidence of STIs increased by 59.75% and 30.02%, respectively, and the number of DALY decreased by 35.19%. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate of chlamydia infection and gonococcal infection in the young and middle-aged group (aged 15-49 years) showed an upward trend; in addition, the DALY rate of genital herpes and trichomoniasis also increased. Among the 5 STIs, the disease burden caused by trichomoniasis infection in women was much higher than that in men. With the increase in the socio-demographic index (SDI), the burden of STIs in China gradually decreased. After the SDI exceeded 0.65, the decline rate of standardized DALY rate sharply increased. ConclusionThe disease burden of STIs in China shows a downward trend from 1990 to 2019, and the disease burden of the young and middle-aged group (aged 15-49 years) is the most significant, especially in trichomoniasis and chlamydia infection.
ObjectiveTo analyze the variation trend of high low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) attribution disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019. MethodsThe burden of disease indicators from Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019), such as death attributable to high LDL-C, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lost to disability (YLDs) were extracted. The age was standardized using GBD 2019 global standard population, and the trend of rates with the annual percentage change (APC) was analyzed. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of high LDL-C increased with age in China. The mortality rate, DALYs rate and YLLs rate of males were higher than those of females, while the YLDs rate of males was lower than that of females. Joinpoint regression results showed that from 1990 to 2019, the high LDL-C attribution mortality rate (APC=3.4%, P<0.05), DALYs rate (APC=2.4%, P<0.05), YLLs rate (APC=2.4%, P<0.05), YLDs rate (APC = 2.9%, P<0.05), the standardized mortality rate (APC=0.8%, P<0.05) and the standardized YLDs rate (APC=0.7%, P<0.05) all increased in China. Regarding age, the mortality rate, DALYs rate and YLLs rate increased in the age group over 70 years old, while the YLDs rate increased significantly in the age group over 45 years old. ConclusionFrom 1990 to 2019, the burden of disease attributable to high LDL-C in China has become increasingly heavy, and the burden varies according to gender and age.
ObjectiveTo analyze the epidemiological trends and current status of disease burden of type 2 diabetes related chronic kidney disease (CKD-T2D) in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict its future trends. MethodsThis study was based on the global burden of disease 2021 (GBD 2021) database to obtain the disease burden data of CKD-T2D in China, including the data of incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and used the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to predict the change trends until 2035. ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, the standardized incidence rate of CKD-T2D in China showed an overall upward trend, while the standardized mortality rate and DALY rate showed an overall downward trend, with the average annual percentage change (AAPC) being 0.04%, −0.04%, −1.11% (P<0.05). Moreover, CKD-T2D in the whole country presented the characteristics of high incidence, high mortality and high DALY burden in the elderly population. From 2022 to 2035, all disease burden indicators of CKD-T2D in China are expected to show an overall downward trend. It is expected that the standardized incidence rate, mortality rate and DALY rate will drop to 16.21/100 000, 4.62/100 000 and 99.35/100 000 respectively in 2035. The overall decline of each indicator in the female population in China is greater than that in the male population. ConclusionThe prevention and treatment situation of CKD-T2D in China is severe, the burden caused by disability is relatively heavy and the burden of male and elderly populations is particularly heavy.