Abstract： Diseases prognosis is often influenced by multiple factors, and some intricate non-linear relationships exist among those factors. Artificial neural network （ANN）, an artificial intelligence model, simulates the work mode of biological neurons and has a b capability to analyze multi-factor non-linear relationships. In recent years, ANN is increasingly applied in clinical medical fields, especially for the prediction of disease prognosis. This article focuses on the basic principles of ANN and its application in disease prognosis research.
【Abstract】Objective Stromal cell-derived factor-1(SDF-1, CXCL12) is a member of the CXC subfamily of chemokines which, through its cognate receptor (CXCR4), plays an important role in tumor invasion and metastasis. This study analyzed quantitatively the expression of SDF-1 and its relation with clinicopathologic feature and clinical outcome in human breast cancer.Methods Expression of SDF-1 mRNA in 8 breast cancer cell lines, an endothelial cell line HECV and a fibroblast cell MRC5 was studied by using RT-PCR. In addition, the expression of SDF-1 was investigated at both protein (immunohistochemistry) and mRNA(real-time PCR) levels in a group of human normal mammary(n=32) and tumour tissues(n=120). Results SDF-1 expression was identified in MRC5, MDA-MB435s, MDA-MB436, MCF7 cell lines, breast tumour and normal tissues. Significantly higher level of SDF-1 was seen in lymph node positive than in lymph node negative tumours (399.00±210.00 vs 0.89±0.47), P=0.048. The level of SDF-1 expression in patients who developed local recurrence or metastasis, or patients who died of breast cancer was higher than in patients who were disease free as well, (670.00±346.00 vs 0.83±0.35), P=0.01. It was most notable that level of SDF-1 was significantly correlated with over survival (P=0.01) and incidence free survival (P=0.035, by Cox proportion analysis).Conclusion SDF-1 is a factor that is expressed in both stromal cells and some breast cancer cells. Its level are correlated with lymph node involvement, prognosis and survival in patients with breast cancer. SDF-1 may therefore have a potential prognostic value in breast cancer.
Objective To study the factors affecting the prognosis of vitrectomy in mechanically injured eyes. Methods One hundred and thirty-Seven eyes undergone vitrectomy were in cluded.Recorded to EPIINFO data base were visual acuity (VA) immediately after injury,type and location of injury,the interval from injury to surgical intervention,retinal detachment,basic surgical maneuvers,proliferative vitreo-retinopathy (PVR),stage of trauma,complications,final VA,and final retinal status.Data were analyzed by SAS. Results We got anatomic success in 107 eyes (75.9%).Final VA of 74 eyes (54.1%) were better than 0.02.Multiple-variable analysis showed that the factors significantly affecting prognosis of vitrectomied eyes of mechanical injury were retinal detachment (RD) before surgery,delay of surgical intervention,complexity of surgical maneuvers,complications after surgery. Conclusions RD before surgery,delayed surgical intervention,complexity of surgery and post vitrectomy complications are the most important factors contributing to the poor prognosis of VA and failure of surgery. (Chin J Ocul Fundus Dis，2000，16：139-212)
ObjectiveTo study the expression of matrilysin in gastric cancer and to evaluate the correlation between its expression and invasion, metastasis, and prognosis. MethodsA total of 52 patients with gastric cancer were selected and followed up. The expressions of matrilysin in gastric primary focus, normal gastric mucosa, and metastatic lymph nodes were examined by reverse transcriptionpolymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), Western blot, and immunohistochemistry, respectively. The correlations between matrilysin expression and tumor invasion, metastasis, and prognosis were assessed. ResultsThe expressions of matrilysin in gastric primary focus and metastatic lymph nodes significantly increased, while decreased or loss in normal gastric mucosa (Plt;0.001). The higher concordance was seen between the levels of mRNA and protein (Plt;0.001). Among patients with infiltrating type, penetrated serosa, area of serosa involved more than 20 cm2, and metastatic lymph nodes more than 7, the expression of matrilysin was significantly higher (Plt;0.01). The survival rate of patients with matrilysin higher expression (34.1%) was significantly lower than that with matrilysin lower expression (55.6%), χ2=9.778， P=0.002. Conclusions Up-regulated expression of matrilysin plays an important role in tumor invasion, metastasis, and poor prognosis, and it is a good molecular marker to reflect the biological behaviors of gastric cancer.
ObjectiveTo investigate the predicting effect of PIK3CA mutations for the efficacy and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients received surgical resection. MethodsPCR and DNA sequencing were used to detect the PIK3CA mutation status of 79 HCC tissues, its impact on the short and long term effects of the patients were analyzed. ResultsIn this group of patients, mutation rate of PIK3CA gene exon 9 was 39.24% (31/79), PIK3CA mutation rate correlated with lymph node status and tumor differentiation (P < 0.05). The therapeutic effect of patients with PIK3CA mutation was significantly poor than that of the non-mutated group (P < 0.05). The three-year cumulative survival of patients with PIK3CA mutation (33.33%) was significantly lower than non-mutated group's (60.00%) by Kaplan-Meier (P < 0.05). ConclusionPIK3CA gene mutation in exon 9 could impact the efficiency of surgical resection in patients with HCC and could predict a poor survival prognosis.
To investigate the relationship between metallothionein (MT) and prognosis in breast cancer MT expression was determined with immunohistochemical method (SABC). Results: There was a statistically significant association between expression of MT in breast benign and malignant disease (Ｐ＜0.005). The positive rate was 73.8%(62/84) and 15.0%(3/20) in breast cancer and mastofibroma respectively. The positivity of MT was ber in advanced clinical stages than in early clinical stages. There was no association between MT expression and lymph node metastasis. The mortality of the cancer cases with lymph node metastasis having positive MT expression was higher than those with negative MT expression. Conclusion: MT can be taken as a prognostic index of breast cancer.
目的 探讨重症急性胰腺炎并发多器官功能障碍及预后关系的临床研究。 方法 回顾分析2008年1月－2010年12月收治的51例重症急性胰腺炎患者的临床资料。 结果 其中出现全身炎症反应综合征者46例（90.20%），多器官功能障碍36例（70.59%），重症急性胰腺炎并发多器官功能障碍者治愈好转20例，未合并者治愈好转13例。死亡18例。 结论 引起重症急性胰腺炎患者死亡的最主要因素是多器官功能障碍，早预防、早发现、综合治疗多器官功能障碍有助于降低重症急性胰腺炎患者死亡率。
ObjectiveTo investigate the association between serum thyroid hormone levels and prognosis for patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) without thyroid disease, and explore the prognostic value of serum thyroid hormone levels for patients with AECOPD.MethodsThe clinical data of 239 hospitalized cases of AECOPD [149 males, 90 females, aged 42-92 (77.7±8.9) years] from January 2013 to November 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Serum thyroid hormone levels including total tetraiodothyronin (TT4), total triiodothyronin (TT3), thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free tetraiodothyronin (FT4) and free triiodothyronin (FT3) were measured by chemiluminescence immunoassay. All patients were divided into a survival group and a death group according to the prognosis. Serum thyroid hormone levels were compared between two groups. Correlations of serum thyroid hormone levels with the occurrence of death in AECOPD patients were analyzed. The prognostic value of serum thyroid hormone levels for AECOPD patients was explored by receiveroperating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. And the best cut-off value of serum thyroid hormone level in predicting the risk of death was calculated.ResultsSerum TT4, TT3, FT4 and FT3 levels in the survival group were significantly higher than those in the death group [TT4: (89.35±21.45) nmol/L vs. (76.84±21.33) nmol/L; TT3: (1.05±0.34) nmol/L vs. (0.72±0.19) nmol/L; FT4: (16.17±2.91) pmol/L vs. (14.45±2.85) pmol/L; FT3: (3.06±0.81) pmol/L vs. (2.24±0.72) pmol/L; all P<0.05]. The differences of serum TSH level between two groups were not statistically significant [0.98 (0.54-1.83)vs. 0.57 (0.31-1.84), P>0.05]. Spearman correlation analysis showed that serum TT4, TT3, FT4 and FT3 levels were significant correlated with the occurrence of death (r values were 0.226, 0.417, 0.220, 0.387, respectively, P<0.05). And there was no significant correlation between serum TSH level and the occurrence of death (P>0.05). ROC curve analysis was done between serum thyroid hormone levels (TT4, TT3, TSH, FT4 and FT3) and the occurrence of death in the AECOPD patients. The areas under ROC curve were 0.659, 0.793, 0.588, 0.655 and 0.772, respectively. Serum TT3 was the best indicator for predicting the occurrence of death. When serum TT3 level was 0.85nmol/L, the Youden index was the highest (0.486), with a sensitivity of 70.2%, and a specificity of 78.3%. It was the best cut-offl value of serum TT3 to predict the risk of death in AECOPD patients.ConculsionsSerum thyroid hormone levels are significant associated with the prognostic for AECOPD patients. There is certain value of serum thyroid hormone levels in prognostic evaluation of AECOPD patients.
Objective To establish a short-term mortality risk scoring standard for sepsis-associated acute respiratory distress syndrome (sARDS) and provide a reference tool for clinicians to evaluate the severity of sARDS patients. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted on sARDS patients admitted to the adult intensive care unit (ICU) of the First Affiliated Hospital, Hengyang Medical School, University of South China from January 1, 2013 to August 31, 2020. They were divided into a death group and a survival group according to whether they died within 28 days after admission to ICU. Clinical data of the patients was collected within 24 hours admitted to ICU. Related risk factors for mortality within 28 days after admission to ICU were screened out through univariate logistic regression analysis. A risk prediction model for mortality within 28 days after admission to ICU was established by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 test and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to evaluate the model’s goodness-fit and accuracy in predicting 28-day mortality of the sARDS patients, respectively. Finally, the clinical prognosis scoring criteria 28-day mortality of the sARDS patients were established according to the weight coefficients of each independent risk factor in the model. Results A total of 150 patients were recruited in this study. There were 67 patients in the survival group and 83 patients in the death group with a 28-day mortality rate of 55.3%. Four independent risk factors for 28-day mortality of the sARDS patients, including invasive mechanical ventilation, the number of dysfunctional organs≥3, serum lactic acid≥4.3 mmol/L and the severity of ARDS. A risk prediction model for mortality within 28 days of the sARDS patients was established. The area under the ROC curve and 95% confidence interval (CI), sensitivity and specificity of the risk prediction model for 28-day mortality for the sARDS patients were 0.896 (95%CI 0.846 - 0.945), 80.7% and 82.1%, respectively, while that for acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHEⅡ) score were 0.865 (95%CI 0.805 - 0.925), 71.1% and 89.6%; for sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score were 0.841 (95%CI 0.7799 - 0.904), 68.7%, and 82.1%; for the prediction scores of lung injury were 0.855 (95%CI 0.789 - 0.921), 81.9% and 82.1%, respectively. It was indicated that the prediction accuracy of this risk prediction model of 28-day mortality maybe was better than that of APACHE-Ⅱ score, SOFA score and prediction score of lung injury. In addition, four risk factors were assigned as invasive mechanical ventilation (12 points), serum lactic acid≥4.3mmol /L (1 point), number of organs involved≥3 (3 points), and severity of ARDS (mild for 13 points, moderate for 26 points, severe for 39 points). Further more, the score of each patient was 13 - 55 points according to the scoring criteria, and the score grade was made according to the percentile method: 13 - 23 points for the low-risk group for 28-day mortality, 24 - 34 points for the medium-risk group for 28-day mortality, 35 - 45 points for the high-risk group for 28-day mortality, and over 45 points for the extremely high-risk group for 28-day mortality. According to the scoring criteria, the prognosis of the patients in this study was analyzed. The mortality probability of each group was 0.0% in the low-risk group, 13.8% in the medium-risk group, 51.9% in the high-risk group, and 89.7% in the extremely high-risk group, respectively. Conclusions The invasive mechanical ventilation, the number of involved organs≥3, serum lactic acid≥4.3 mmol /L and the severity of sARDS are independent risk factors for 28-day mortality of the sARDS patients. The scoring criteria may predict the risk of 28-day mortality for the sARDS patients.
ObjectiveTo observe the prognosis index in acute arsenic trihydride poisoning patients in order to provide references for early clinical treatment. MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 20 acute arsenic trihydride poisoning patients treated between July 2010 and January 2014. The patients were divided into death group and survival group according to survival situation 90 days later. The length of time from onset to treatment, urine arsenic concentration, blood routine, hepatic and renal function, electrolyte, myocardial enzyme, arterial blood gas analysis were observed by single factor analysis, and the positive indexes were analyzed by logistic regression analysis to seek the potential influencing factors for survival. ResultsCompared with the survival group, the length of time from onset to treatment, urine arsenic, serum total bilirubin, creatinine, creatine kinase of the death group were significantly higher (P<0.05), while the value of pH, HCO3-, BE of the survival group were significantly lower (P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis revealed that these indexes remarkably affected patients' survival rate. ConclusionTherapeutic time window, extent of damage of heart, liver, kidney and acid-base imbalance are closely associated with the survival rate of arsenic trihydride poisoning patients, and timely treatment for above factors can be useful for improving prognosis.