Abstract: Objective To compare the multiple organ dysfunction score (MODS), the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), the acute physiology, age, and chronic health evaluation system Ⅱ(APACHE Ⅱ), the acute physiology, age, and chronic health evaluation system Ⅲ(APACHE Ⅲ) in evaluating risks for patients after cardiac surgery, in order to provide better treatment and prediction of prognosis after cardiac operation. Methods A prospective study was carried out on 1 935 cardiac postoperative patients, including 1 050 males and 885 females, enrolled in cardiac postoperative intensive care unitof Anzhen hospital between October 2007 and April 2008. The age of the patients ranged from 18 to 86 years with the mean age of 53.96 years. The patients underwent the surgery because of various cardiac diseases including coronary heart disease, valve disease, congenital heart disease, aortic aneurysm, pericardial disease, atrial fibrillation, and pulmonary embolism. We used MODS, SOFA, APACHE Ⅱ, and APACHE Ⅲ respectively to calculate the value of the first day after operation, the maximum value during the first three days, the maximum value, and the change of the value between the third day and the first day for every patient, and then we compared the calibration and discrimination of these different systems using HosmerLemeshow goodnessoffit analysis and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. Results There were 47 perioperative deaths because of circulating system failure, respiration failure, kidney failure, liver failure or nervous system diseases. The death rate was 2.43%. In discrimination analysis, the area under the curve (AUC) in ROC of the first day value after operation, the maximum value, the maximum value during the first three days, and the change of value between the third day and the first day for MODS were respectively 0.747, 0.901, 0.892, and 0.786; for SOFA were respectively 0.736, 0.891, 0.880, and 0.798; for APACHE Ⅱ were respectively 0.699, 0.848, 0,827, and 0.562; for APACHE Ⅲ were respectively 0.721, 0.872, 0.869, and 0.587. In calibration analysis, we compared the χ2 value of the first day value, the maximum value, the maximum value during the first 3 days, and the change of value between the third day and the first day of these systems. χ2 value of MODS was 4.712, 5.905, 5.384, and 13.215; χ2 value of SOFA was 8.673, 3.189, 3.111, and 14.225; χ2 value of APACHE Ⅱ was 15.688, 10.132, 8.061, and 42.253; χ2 value of APACHE Ⅲ was 13.608, 11.196, 19.310, and 47.576. AUC value of MODS and SOFA were all larger than those of APACHE Ⅱ and APACHE Ⅲ (Plt;0.05); AUC value of APACHE Ⅱ was smaller than that of APACHE Ⅲ (Plt;0.05). Conclusion MODS, SOFA, APACHE Ⅱ and APACHE Ⅲ are all applicable in evaluating risks for patients after cardiac surgery. However, MODS and SOFA are better than APACHE Ⅱ、APACHE Ⅲ in predicting mortality after cardiac surgery. In cardiac surgery, the complicated APACHE Ⅱ and APACHE Ⅲ systems can be replaced by MODS and SOFA systems which are simpler for use.
ObjectiveTo investigate the prognostic value of high mobility group protein 1 (HMGB1) in patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). MethodsA total 118 VAP patients admitted between March 2013 and March 2015 were recruited in the study. The patients were divided into a death group and a survival group according to 28-day death. Baseline data, HMGB1, C-reactive protein (CRP), clinical pulmonary infection score (CPIS), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHEⅡ) and sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores were collected on 1st day (d1), 4th day (d4), and 7th day (d7) after VAP diagnosis. The possible prognostic factors were analyzed by univariate and logistic multivariate analysis. ResultsThere were 87 cases in the survival group and 31 cases in the death group. Age, female proportion, body mass index, HMGB1 (d1, d4, d7), APACHEⅡ (d1, d4, d7) and SOFA (d1, d4, d7) scores were all higher in the death group than those in the survival group (all P < 0.05). HMGB1 (d4, P=0.031), APACHEⅡ (d4, P=0.018), SOFA (d4, P=0.048), HMGB1(d7, P=0.087), APACHEⅡ(d7, P=0.073) and SOFA (d7, P=0.049) were closely correlated with 28-day mortality caused by VAP. Multivariate analysis revealed that HMGB1 (d4, HR=1.43, 95%CI 1.07 to 1.78, P=0.021), SOFA (d4, HR=1.15, 95%CI 1.06 to 1.21, P=0.019) and HMGB1 (d7, HR=1.27, 95%CI 1.18 to 1.40, P=0.003) were independent predictors of death in the VAP patients. ROC curve revealed HMGB1 (d4, d7) and SOFA (d4) with area under ROC curve of 0.951, 0.867 and 0.699. ConclusionIndividual HMGB1 level can be used as a good predictor of the short-outcomes of VAP.
ObjectiveTo analyze the roles of three scoring systems, i.e. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) Ⅱ, Ranson’s criteria, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), in predicting mortality in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) admitted to intensive care unit (ICU), and explore the independent risk factors for mortality in SAP patients.MethodsThe electronic medical records of SAP patients who admitted to ICU of West China Hospital, Sichuan University between July 2014 and July 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Data of the first APACHE Ⅱ, Ranson’s criteria, SOFA score, duration of mechanical ventilation, the use of vasoactive drugs and renal replacement therapy, and outcomes were obtained. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the value of APACHE Ⅱ score, Ranson’s criteria, and SOFA score in predicting the prognosis of SAP. Logistic regression models were created to analyze the independent effects of factors on mortality.ResultsA total of 290 SAP patients hospitalized in ICU were screened retrospectively, from whom 60 patients were excluded, and 230 patients including 162 males and 68 females aged (51.1±13.7) years were finally included. The ICU mortality of the 230 patients with SAP was 27.8% (64/230), with 166 patients in the survival group and 64 patients in the death group. The areas under ROC curves of APACHE Ⅱ, Ranson’s criteria, APACHE Ⅱ combined with Ranson’s criteria, and SOFA score in predicting mortality in SAP patients admitted to ICU were 0.769, 0.741, 0.802, and 0.625, respectively. The result showed that APACHE Ⅱcombined with Ranson’s criteria was superior to any single scoring system in predicting ICU death of SAP patients. The result of logistic regression analysis showed that APACHE Ⅱ score [odds ratio (OR)=1.841, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.022, 2.651), P=0.002], Ranson’s criteria [OR=1.542, 95%CI (1.152, 2.053), P=0.004], glycemic lability index [OR=1.321, 95%CI (1.021, 1.862), P=0.008], the use of vasoactive drugs [OR=15.572, 95%CI (6.073, 39.899), P<0.001], and renal replacement therapy [OR=4.463, 95%CI (1.901, 10.512), P=0.001] contributed independently to the risk of mortality.ConclusionsAPACHE Ⅱ combined with Ranson’s criteria is better than SOFA score in the prediction of mortality in SAP patients admitted to ICU. APACHE Ⅱ score, Ranson’s criteria, glycemic lability index, the use of vasoactive drugs and renal replacement therapy contribute independently to the risk of ICU mortality in patients with SAP.
Abstract: Objective To compare the midterm patency rates of individual and sequential saphenous vein grafts (SVG) as coronary bypass conduits of offpump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB) and evaluate the impact of the grafting techniques (individual or sequential grafts) on the graft patencyafter OPCAB. Methods The clinical data of 398 patients in General Hospital of the People’s Liberation Army receiving OPCAB with individual and sequential grafts from June 2005 to March 2009 were retrospectively analyzed. There were 301 males and 97 females with their age ranged from 53 to 82 years (63.6±10.3 years). A total of 714 distal coronary anastomoses on 448 SVG were assessed by using 64multislice computed tomography (64MSCTA) at an average of 19.8±23.6 months (3 months to 5 years) after OPCAB procedure. The blood flow of grafts in the proximal segment of individual and sequential SVG and the patency rates of grafts and anastomoses were compared, and the effect of different locations on the patency rate of the anastomoses was analyzed. Results The mean blood flow in double SVG (37.11±16.70 ml/min vs. 25.15±14.24 ml/min, P0.042) and in triple SVG (37.56±19.58 ml/min vs. 25.15±14.24 ml/min, P=0.048) were both significantly higher than the flow in single SVG. The anastomoses on the sequential conduits had better patency (95.1％ vs. 90.1％, P=0.013). The patency of sideto side anastomoses was better than that of endtoside anastomoses (97.0% vs. 93.1%, P=0.002) and that of the individual endtoside anastomoses (97.0% vs. 90.1%, P=0.041). There was no significant difference between distal anastomoses in sequential and those in single grafts (P=0.253). No significant difference was observed between the two methods in regard to the three major coronary systems (including the anterior descending branch, the right coronary artery, and the circumflex branch). However, anastomoses on sequential grafts had superior patency to those on individual grafts in the right coronary system (P=0.008). Conclusion The midterm patency of a sequential SVG conduit after OPCAB is excellent and generally superior to that of an individual one. The best runoff coronary artery should be placed at the distal end and the poor coronary vessels should be arranged in the middle of the grafts.
呼吸道感染在感染性疾病中占有重要地位，细菌性肺炎是呼吸道感染中的主要代表性疾病，最重要的治疗措施是抗菌治疗，用药选择及方法正确与否直接影响治疗的成败。同时如何降低医疗费用也是临床医生需要考虑的棘手问题。据国外文献报道在英国每年约有5亿张以上的抗微生物药物处方，其中住院处方中约40％为静脉制剂，而我国住院静脉制剂的处方比例则更高。医疗费用的增加部分与静脉用药过多有关。为寻求解决临床治疗与医疗费用之间的矛盾，选择高效、低毒、廉价的抗菌药物，1987年Quintiliani等[1]首先提出了抗生素序贯疗法（sequential therapy）的概念，即在经过相对短疗程（48～72 h）静脉抗菌药物治疗，临床症状基本稳定或改善后，改为口服抗菌药物治疗。口服的抗菌药物可以是与前者完全相同的口服剂型，也可以是同一类或抗菌谱相似的同一级药物，后也有人称之为"转换治疗"（switch therapy）、"降级治疗"（step-down therapy）。据国外文献报道，住院的社区获得性肺炎（CAP）应用序贯疗法者因早期出院每位患者节约费用293~1393美元[2-4]。
Objective To evaluate the predicting effect of quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) on septic shock, and investigate the probability of improving the predicting effect. Methods Patients with sepsis diagnosed in Emergency Department from July 2015 to June 2016 were enrolled. They were divided into shock group and non-shock group based on whether or not they had septic shock during 72 hours after admission. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to find out the independent risk factors affecting the incidence of septic shock. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze those risk factors. Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis Score (MEDS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Acute Physiology and Chronic HealthEvaluation (APACHE)Ⅱ and qSOFA were also compared with ROC curve analysis. The possibility of improvement of qSOFA predicting effect was discussed. Results A total of 821 patients were enrolled, with 108 in septic shock group and 713 in non-septic shock. The result of multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, pH value, oxygenation index, lactate, albumin, Glasgow Coma Score and procalcitonin were the independent risk factors (P<0.05). The result of ROC analysis showed that the area under curve (AUC) of pH value, lactate and procalcitonin was 0.695, 0.678 and 0.694, respectively. Lactate had the highest value of specificity (0.868), positive predictive value (0.356) and positive likelihood ratio (3.644), while the sensitivity (0.889) and negative predictive value (0.961) of procalcitonin were the highest. MEWS, MEDS, SOFA, APACHEⅡ and qSOFA were compared with ROC. SOFA had the best predicting effect with the statistical results of AUC (0.833), sensitivity (0.835), specificity (0.435), positive predictive value (0.971), negative predictive value (0.971), and positive likelihood ratio (5.048); and MEWS had the highest negative likelihood ratio (0.581). qSOFA did not show a best predicting value. Conclusion qSOFA is not the best choice to predict the possibility of septic shock, but its predicting value might be improved when combined with pH value, lactate and procalcitonin.
The therapeutic efficacy of MBGC on maxillofacial augmentation was observed by asequential analysis. MBGC was implanted to 36 cases for two years, the efficiency rate was 69%. This suggested that MBGC wasa good material for implantation. The factors influencing the efficacy were analyzed and the measures for prevention and improvement were suggested.
The 14th Five-Year Plan for National Health explicitly proposes elevating the comprehensive prevention and control strategy for chronic diseases to the national strategy, aiming to address the growing demand for long-term management and individualized treatment of chronic diseases. In this context, the adaptive treatment strategy (ATS), as an innovative treatment model, offers new ideas and methods for the management and treatment of chronic diseases through its flexible, personalized, and scientific characteristics. To construct ATS, the sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART) has emerged as a research method for multi-stage randomized controlled trials. The SMART design has been widely used in international clinical research, but there is a lack of systematic reports and studies in China. This paper first introduces the basic principles of ATS and SMART design, and then focuses on two key elements of the SMART design: re-randomization and intermediate outcomes. Based on these two elements, four major types of SMART designs are summarized, including: (1) SMART designs in which the intermediate outcome corresponds to a single re-randomization scheme (the classical type), (2) SMART designs in which no intermediate outcome is embedded, (3) SMART designs in which the intermediate outcome corresponds to a different re-randomization scheme, and (4) SMART designs in which the intermediate outcome and the previous interventions jointly determine the re-randomization. These different types of SMART designs are appropriate for solving different types of scientific problems. Using specific examples, this paper also analyzes the conditions under which SMART designs are applicable in clinical trials and predicts that the mainstream analysis methods for SMART designs in the future will combine frequentist statistics and Bayesian statistics. It is expected that the introduction and analysis in this paper will provide valuable references for researchers and promote the widespread application and innovative development of SMART design in the field of chronic disease prevention, control, and treatment strategies in China.
Cumulative meta-analysis could help researchers to justify the effectiveness of the intervention and whether the obtained evidence is sufficient. However, the process of the meta-analysis does not adjust the repeated testing of the null hypothesis and neither quantifies the statistical power. The sequential meta-analysis has solved the aforementioned problems and has been widely used in the clinical practice and decision-making. Currently several methods of sequential meta-analysis have been proposed and these methods differ from each other. Of which, the methodology of trial sequential (TSA) is well developed and corresponding performance is relatively easy; the methodology of double-triangular test of Whitehead is lagged than TSA and its performance is relatively difficult; the approach of semi-Bayes refers to the theory of Bayes and it's very difficult to generalize. Our paper aimed to give a brief introduction of the methodology of the sequential meta-analysis.
Objective To evaluate the clinical efficacy of integrated treatment ( sequential noninvasive following invasive mechanical ventilation, bronchoscope suction, combined inhalation) in patients with acute respiratory failure induced by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ( COPD) . Methods 59 elderly patients with COPD and acute respiratory failure in ICU fromJuly 2006 to July 2009 were enrolled in the study. The patients were randomized into three groups, ie. a non-invasive mechanical ventilation group ( NIV group) , a sequential non-invasive following invasive mechanical ventilation group ( SV group) , a integrated treatment group ( IT group) . APACHEⅡ score, clinical pulmonary infection score ( CPIS) ,arterial blood gas analysis, respiratory rate ( RR) , heart rate ( HR) , and mean artery blood pressure ( MAP)at 0 h, 3 h, 3 d, 12 d after treatment were recorded. Results With the extension of treatment time,APACHEⅡ score, CPIS score, RR, HR, PaCO2 , and white blood cells gradually reduced, while pH and PaO2 gradually increased in the three groups ( P lt;0. 05) . The differences in RR, HR, PaCO2 , and PaO2 at the time of 3 d and 12 d were significant between the three groups( P lt;0. 05) . The occurrence of pulmonary infection control ( PIC) window and ventilation associated pneumonia ( VAP) had no difference among the three groups( P gt;0. 05) . The duration of total mechanical ventilation, durations of ICU stay and hospital stay were shorter in SV group than those in NIV group( P lt;0. 05) . The duration of total mechanical ventilation,duration of invasive mechanical ventilation, durations of ICU stay and hospital stay were shorter in IT group than those in SV group( P lt;0. 05) . The incidence of VAP was higher in SV group than NIV group, but lower in IT group than SV group( P lt;0. 05) . Hospital mortality was lower in SV group than NIV group, and higher in IT group than SV group( P lt; 0. 05) . Conclusion In elderly COPD patients with acute respiratory failure, integrated treatment given early can reduce the duration of mechanical ventilation, the length of ICU and hospital stay, and decrease the morbidity of VAP and mortality.