Objective To investigate the prognostic factors of severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ( COPD) in elderly patients, and to guide the clinical assessment and appropriate interventions. Methods A prospective cohort study was carried out from May 1993 to December 2010. A total of 178 elderly patients with severe COPD were recruited for baseline survey, and followed up for the living conditions, whether used non-invasive ventilation, and causes of death. A survival analysis was performed on all patients stratified by lung function. The significant factors on survival rate were analyzed. Results In this cohort the survival rates were 49% and 12% in five and ten years, respectively. The important factors for prognosis were age [ relative risk( RR) = 1. 043, 95% confidence intervals( 95% CI = 1. 010-1. 050] , forced expired volume in one second ( FEV1 , RR = 0. 019, 95% CI = 0. 007-0. 052) , FEV1% pred ( RR = 1. 045, 95% CI = 1. 012-1. 079) , lung function grade ( RR = 2. 542, 95% CI = 1. 310-4. 931) , body mass index ( BMI, RR= 0. 945, 95% CI = 0. 895-0. 952) , and pulmonary heart disease ( RR = 1. 872, 95% CI = 1. 188- 2. 959) . In severe COPD, non-invasive ventilation ( NIV, RR = 1. 167, 95% CI = 0. 041-1. 674) , pulmonary heart disease ( RR = 3. 805, 95% CI = 1. 336-10. 836) , FEV1 ( RR = 0. 081, 95% CI = 1. 001-1. 168) , and arterial partial of oxygen ( PaO2 , RR=0. 956, 95% CI =0. 920-0. 993) were the independent predictors.The patients using NIV had longer survival than those without NIV. The 5 and 10 years survival rate in the patients with NIV were 78% and 50% , much higher than those without ventilation which were 30% and 25% , respectively. In extremely severe COPD, FEV1 ( RR=1. 059, 95% CI =1. 015-1. 105) , arterial partial of carbon dioxide ( PaCO2 , RR=1. 037, 95% CI = 1. 001-1. 074) , age ( RR= 1. 054, 95% CI = 1. 013-1. 096) and pulmonary heart disease ( RR = 1. 892, 95% CI = 1. 125-3. 181) were the independent predictors. Conclusions Age, BMI, FEV1 , PaO2 , PaCO2 , pulmonary heart disease, and NIV were prognostic factors in elderly patients with severe COPD. The prognostic factors between severe and extremely severe COPD were not identical. Patients with severe COPD should be given early intervention, including progressive nutritional support, and long-term home oxygen therapy combining with NIV.
Objective To compare the oncologic results between laparoscopic and open approach for the treatment of rectal cancer. Methods Five hundred and twenty patients with rectal cancer from Jan. 2003 to Dec. 2008 were non-randomly divided into laparoscopic (LS) and open surgery (OS) group. Local recurrence, distant metastasis and survival rate were compared between two groups. Results One hundred and eighty-six cases received laparoscopic resection and 334 cases received open operation. There were no statistically significant differences (SSD) of demographic data between two groups (Pgt;0.05). Mean follow-up was 30.3 months. No SSD was observed in 3-year cumulative survival rate (83% in LS and 80% in OS, P=0.549), distant metastasis rate (12.5% in LS and 15.6% in OS, P=0.368), incidence of incision seeding (0.6% in LS and 0 in OS, P=0.189), or cumulative survival (P=0.142). The differences of local recurrences rate (4.8% in LS and 10.7% in OS, P=0.028), 3-year cumulative disease-free survival rate (81% in LS and 68% in OS, P=0.009), and cumulative disease-free survival (P=0.010) between two groups were statistical significant. The differences of cumulative survival, cumulative disease-free survival, local recurrences， and distant metastasis according to the TNM stageⅠ or Ⅱ between two groups were not statistical significant. The differences of cumulative disease-free survival and local recurrences according to the TNM stage Ⅲ reached statistical significance (P=0.045 and P=0.047, respectively). Conclusion Oncologic results of laparoscopic resection are similar to those of open resection for rectal carcinoma．
Objective To analyze the clinical features and survival of lung cancer with pleural effusions. Methods A total of 982 consecutive patients with a newly diagnosed lung cancer from January 2008 to December 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. To analyze the clinical features and survival differences, the total patients were divided into the following two groups: with (n=204) or without (n=778) pleural effusions. Results Lung cancer comprised 682 (69.5%) males and 300 (30.5%) females, with an average age of 59.74 years (19–93 years). There were 487(49.6%) squamous carcinoma, 254 (25.9%) adenocarcinoma and 166 (16.9%) small cell lung cancer; 113 (11.5%) lung cancer at early stage (Ⅰ–Ⅱ), 247 (25.2%) cases at stage Ⅲ and 567 (57.7%) at stage Ⅳ. The median survival time of all patients was 12 months. Patients with pleural effusions had a worse prognosis compared to patients without (median survival time: 11 vs.12 months, P=0.003), the median survival time could be reduced by 1 month in males (P=0.004), 3 months in elder patients over 60 years (P<0.001), 4 to 8 months in carcinoma and small cell lung cancer (P≤0.001), and 2 to 3 months in advanced lung cancer (stage Ⅲ and Ⅳ) (P<0.05). Any or combined treatment of surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy and targeted therapy was associated with an improved overall survival of about 2 months (P=0.009), and targeted therapy could even improve the median survival time by 1 to 8 months (P=0.002). Conclusions About 20.8% of the patients developed pleural effusion at the same time during the course of lung cancer. Pleural effusion is a poor prognostic factor of lung cancer.
ObjectiveTo study the clinical value of changes of serumα-fetoprotein(AFP) and soluble cell adhesion molecule-1(sICAM-1) levels before and after surgical treatment of primary hepatocellular carcinoma(PHC) as predictors of patient survival. MethodsThe clinical data and followed-up results of 86 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma received hepatectomy or radiofrequency ablation(RFA) in Xijing Hospital and the 451st Hospital of PLA were retrospectivly analyzed. The changes of peripheral blood AFP and sICAM-1 levels in patients before and in 1 month after treatment were observed and all patients were divided into different groups according to the changes in both two markers. Then survival rates of each group were analyzed. ResultsThe patients with AFP < 20μg/L or sICAM-1 < 1 000 U/L before treatment had lower tumor recurrence rate and higher survival rate than patients with elevated serum levels of the both markers(AFP:P=0.018, P < 0.001;sICAM-1:P=0.027, P < 0.001). The larger tumor, late TNM stage, and higher rate of recurrence were associated with elevated serum levels of the both markers(AFP:P=0.016, P=0.026 and P=0.025;sICAM-1:P < 0.001, P=0.024 and P=0.032). The better survival situation was closely related with these cases treated with hepatectomy and their levels of both markers were lower than the above cutoff values both before and after treatment, or leves of both markers above the cut-off values returned to within the normal range after treatment (AFP:P=0.006, P=0.001;sICAM-1:P=0.001, P=0.002). The patients who had simultaneous increase of AFP and sICAM-1 after operation showed the worst tumor-free and overall survivals(P=0.007, P < 0.001). ConclusionTo test the changes of serum AFP and sICAM-1 levels in early stage after treatment for patients who received radical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma has good clinical value for monitoring of tumor recurrence and predict prognosis.
ObjectiveTo investigate the application status of survival analysis in studies published in Chinese oncology journals, and assess their reporting quality and summarize the existing problems, so as to promote the application of survival analysis and reporting quality. MethodsStudies that used survival analysis were collected from 1 492 studies published in Chinese Journal of Oncology, Chinese Journal of Clinical Oncology, Chinese Journal of Radiation Oncology and Chinese Journal of Cancer Prevention and Treatment in 2013. The application status of survival analysis of included studies was analysed and their reporting quality was evaluated. ResultsA total of 242 survival analysis studies were included. Among them, the utilization rates of Kaplan-Meier method, life table method, log-rank test, Breslow test and Cox proportional hazards model were 91.74%, 3.72%, 78.51%, 0.41% and 46.28%, respectively. 112 studies did multivariate analysis through Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 396 end points and 10 different types of survival time were reported. Overall survival (OS) was reported in 233 studies (92.15%). Survival terms were defined to 158 end points (39.90%) of 103 studies (42.56%). The follow-up rates were mentioned in 155 studies (64.05%), of which 4 studies were under 80% and the lowest was 75.25%, 55 studies were 100%. The main problems of survival analysis studies published in Chinese journals were as follows:None of the studies which used Cox proportional hazards model reported the proportional hazards assumption. None of the studies used the method of parametric survival analysis. 130 studies (53.72%) did not use the method of multiple factor analysis. 139 studies (57.44%) did not define the survival terms. Only 11 of 100 studies which reported loss to follow-up had stated how to treat it in the analysis. None of the studies reported the methods of calculating sample size. None of the studies reported the censoring proportion. ConclusionThe methods of survival analysis are used in a low rate in studies published in Chinese oncology journals, and the overall reporting quality of survival analyses is poor. So the reporting guideline of survival analysis should be developed and the authors should be encouraged to cooperate with professional statisticians, in order to improve the design, analysis and reporting quality of survival analysis studies.
Objective To improve esophageal lymph node staging and investgate an ideal esophageal lymph node metastasis staging method. Methods The clinical pathological data and followup data of the 236patients who had undergone thoracic esophagectomy with at least 6 lymph nodes (LN) removed from January 1985 to December 1989 were analyzed retrospectively. Cox proportional hazard model was used to screen risk factors, and Logrank test was applied to perform survival analysis according to lymph node metastasis staging (number, distance and extent). Results The 10-year follow-up rate was 92.3%（218/236）. The overall 1-year, 5-year and 10-year survival rates were 80.2%, 43.1% and 34.2% respectively. One hundred and twelve (47.4%) patients had LN metastasis, and their 5-year survival rates were lower than that of patients without LN metastasis (14.8% vs. 66.6%; χ2=77.18, P=0.000). Cox regression analysis showed that besides depth of invasion, differentiation grade and LN metastasis, the number, distance and extent of LN metastasis were the independent risk factors which could influence prognosis. A further analysis was given via univariate Logrank test. When grouped according to the number of LN metastasis, there were significant differences in overall survival rates (χ2=96.00,P=0.000), but no significant difference was found in survival rates between N2 and N3 group(Pgt;0.05). When grouped according to the distance of LN metastasis, there were significant differences in overall survival rates (χ2=79.29, P=0.000), but no significant difference was found in survival rates among S1, S2 and S3 group(Pgt;0.05). When grouped according to the extent of LN metastasis (0, 1, and ≥2 fields), there were significant differences in overall survival rates (χ2=87.47, P=0.000), and so were the survival rates among groups (χ2=5.14, P=0.023). Conclusion Revising the current Nclassification of TNM staging of esophageal cancer according to the extent of LN metastasis(0, 1, and ≥2 fields) is more reasonable, and can reflect the prognosis of patients with esophageal cancer after esophagectomy better.
ObjectiveTo establish a predictive model for survival and study it’s clinical value by reviewing the information of patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma. MethodsMedical record of 196 patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma were analyzed retrospectively. Seventeen possible clinicopathologic factors were selected. Cox model was used for univariate and multivariate analysis. Prognostic index (PI) was calculated based on the results of multivariate analysis. Patients with different PI were divided into three different risk level groups in order to compare the survival rate. Individual expected survival rate was calculated based on the median PI. Log cumulative hazards function plot was used to test Cox model proportional hazards assumption (PH assumption). ResultsThe significant prognostic factors influencing the survival rate were surgical procedure, surgical margin, and preoperative total bilirubin level (Plt;0.05). The predictive formula was PI=0.815×preoperative total bilirubin level+0.580×surgical margin－0.713×surgical procedure. According to the value of PI, all patients were divided into 3 groups, low risk group (PI≤－0.642), middle risk group (－0.642lt;PIlt;1.364), high risk group (PI≥1.364), and survival rate declined between groups and in groups with statistically significant difference (Plt;0.05). ConclusionThis model for survival can predict the prognosis of patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma individually and help to conduct individual clinical therapy.
Survival data include the occurrence and duration of an event. As most survival data are distributed irregularly, the Kaplan-Meier method is often used in survival analysis; however, studies usually only report the Kaplan-Meier curve and median survival time and do not provide the original survival data, which creates issues for subsequent secondary research. This study introduced a systematic method whereby image processing software and R software were used to process and extract survival data from published Kaplan-Meier curves. It also introduced the specific steps required to obtain survival data using an example to show the accuracy and feasibility of the extraction method and provided references for the effective secondary use of survival data.
ObjectiveTo analyze the clinical characteristics and related prognostic factors of post-renal transplantation pneumonia.MethodsThe clinical data of 89 patients with post-renal transplantation pneumonia in Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People’s Hospital from 1st January 2014 to 31st December 2015 were collected in the study. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate overall survival. Cox analysis was used to analyze the related prognostic factors.ResultsPost-renal transplantation pneumonia occurred mainly within 6 months after renal transplantation. The prominent clinical manifestations were cough (95.5%), fever (56.1%), and dyspnea (12.3%). The mortality of post-renal transplantation pneumonia was 11.2% and all death occurred within 5 months after transplantation. The overall survival rate significantly decreased in the patients with C-reactive protein (CRP) ≥40 mg/L (P<0.001), procalcitonin ≥1 ng/ml (P=0.002), brain natriuretic peptide >100 pg/ml (P<0.001), platelet ≤100×109/L (P<0.001), or those with occurrence time of pneumonia <180 days (P=0.013). Platelet ≤100×109/L could increase the risk of death by 66.6 times (RR=0.015, P=0.006), and CRP ≥ 40 mg/L could increase the risk of death by 20 times (RR=0.05, P=0.029).ConclusionsPost-renal transplantation pneumonia has prominent clinical characteristics. Platelet ≤100×109/L or CRP ≥40 mg/L can increase the risk of death and can be used as an independent prognoctic factor of post-renal transplatation pneumonia.
Objective To investigate the expression of Jumonji domain-containing protein 3 ( JMJD3) in lung cancer tissue. Methods The cancer tissue slides from 53 lung cancer patients with different TNMstages were immunostained with JMJD3 antibody. The relationship between the expression of JMJD3 and type of pathology, TNM stage, survival time was analyzed. Results 94. 3% lung cancer tissue expressed JMJD3 protein. The expression of JMJD3 was negatively correlated with TNMstage( r = - 0. 347,P =0. 002) . The patients with decreased JMJD3 expression had shorter survival time than the patients with high JMJD3 expression ( X2 = 17. 83, P = 0. 001) . Conclusion Decreased expression of JMJD3 may promote the lung cancer progression.