Objective To evaluate the predictive effect of three machine learning methods, namely support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and decision tree, on the daily number of new patients with ischemic stroke in Chengdu. Methods The numbers of daily new ischemic stroke patients from January 1st, 2019 to March 28th, 2021 were extracted from the Third People’s Hospital of Chengdu. The weather and meteorological data and air quality data of Chengdu came from China Weather Network in the same period. Correlation analyses, multinominal logistic regression, and principal component analysis were used to explore the influencing factors for the level of daily number of new ischemic stroke patients in this hospital. Then, using R 4.1.2 software, the data were randomly divided in a ratio of 7∶3 (70% into train set and 30% into validation set), and were respectively used to train and certify the three machine learning methods, SVM, KNN and decision tree, and logistic regression model was used as the benchmark model. F1 score, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and accuracy of each model were calculated. The data dividing, training and validation were repeated for three times, and the average F1 scores, AUCs and accuracies of the three times were used to compare the prediction effects of the four models. Results According to the accuracies from high to low, the prediction effects of the four models were ranked as SVM (88.9%), logistic regression model (87.5%), decision tree (85.9%), and KNN (85.1%); according to the F1 scores, the models were ranked as SVM (66.9%), KNN (62.7%), decision tree (59.1%), and logistic regression model (57.7%); according to the AUCs, the order from high to low was SVM (88.5%), logistic regression model (87.7%), KNN (84.7%), and decision tree (71.5%). Conclusion The prediction result of SVM is better than the traditional logistic regression model and the other two machine learning models.
Objective To explore the effect of multimodal interventions in improving the compliance rate of core infection control measures on reducing the incidence rate of vessel catheter associated infection (VCAI). Methods Inpatients with intravascular catheters in 5 departments with high rates of vascular catheterization and infection of Dongguan People’s Hospital between January 2021 and December 2022 were selected. According to the hospital stay, patients were divided into a pre-intervention group (January to December 2021) and a post-intervention group (January to December 2022). The core infection control measures assessment pass rates of medical staff between the two periods and the differences in the incidence rate of VCAI, average catheterization days, and catheterization rate before and after intervention in both groups were compared. Results A total of 8174 patients were included. Among them, there were 3915 patients in the pre-intervention group and 4259 patients in the post-intervention group. In the pre-intervention group, the total length of hospital stay was 122885 days, the total number of catheterization days was 48028 days, and 28 cases of VCAI occurred. In the post-intervention group, the total length of hospital stay was 126966 days, the total number of catheterization days was 51253 days, and 12 cases of VCAI occurred. After intervention, the compliance rate of VCAI core infection control measures was improved [69.21% (2907/4200) vs. 91.24% (3832/4200); χ2=642.090, P＜0.001], the pass rate of medical staff’s core infection control measures assessment was improved [53.33% (128/240) vs. 91.67% (220/240); χ2=88.443, P＜0.001], the catheterization rate was increased [39.08% (48028/122885) vs. 40.37% (51253/126966); χ2=42.979, P<0.001], and the incidence rate of VCAI was reduced [0.58‰ (28/48028) vs. 0.23‰ (12/51253); incidence-rate ratios =0.40, 95% confidence interval (0.20, 0.79), P=0.008]. Conclusions Improving the compliance rate of VCAI core infection control measures through multimodal interventions can significantly improve the passing rates of core infection control measures of medical staffs. This will help to reduce the incidence of VCAI and ensuring patient safety, provide evidence-based support for the prevention and control of VCAI.
ObjectiveTo investigate the incidence, pathogens, risk factors and clinical outcomes for ventilator- associated pneumonia (VAP) in children after tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) surgical correction, in order to offer reliable data for the prevention of VAP.MethodsThis was a retrospective study performed in Guangdong General Hospital and 181 children (121 males, 60 females, mean age of 11.2±10.4 months) undergoing surgical correction for TOF were included. ALL the children who received mechanical ventilation for 48 hours or longer between January 2013 and December 2017 were classified into a VAP group (n=44) and a non-VAP group (n=137). T test, χ2 test and multiple logistic regression analysis were used to identify the possible risk factors for VAP.ResultsThis study enrolled 181 patients , of which 44 were diagnosed as VAP. And the incidence of VAP was 24.3%. The most frequent isolated pathogen was Gram-negative bacteria (69.7%). Single factor analysis showed that the variables significantly associated with a risk factor of VAP were: hypoxic spells, preoperative pneumonia, preoperative mechanical ventilation support, cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time, reintubation, pulmonary atelectasis, low cardiac output syndrome (LCOS), intra-abdominal drainage and transfusion of fresh frozen plasma. The multiple logistic regression showed CPB time (OR=1.011), reintubation (OR=14.548), pulmonary atelectasis (OR=6.139) and LCOS (OR=3.054) were independent risk factors for VAP in children after TOF surgical correction. Patients with VAP had prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation, a longer ICU stay and longer hospitalization time.ConclusionsThe VAP rate in this population is higher than that reported abroad, which leads to prolonged duration of mechanical ventilation and a longer hospital stay. The effective measures for prevention of VAP should be taken according to the related risk factors for VAP to decrease the incidence of VAP in children after TOF surgical correction.
Objective To review the research progress of the risk factors for slip progression and the pathogenesis of lumbosacral spondylolisthesis, and to discuss the value of Spinal Deformity Study Group (SDSG) classification system for lumbosacral spondylolisthesis. Methods Recent articles about the risk factors for slip progression and the pathogenesis of lumbosacral spondylolisthesis were reviewed and comprehensively analyzed with SDSG classification system of lumbosacral spondylolisthesis. Results Pelvic incidence (PI) is the key pathogenic factor of lumbosacral spondylolisthesis. The Meyerding grade of slip, PI, sacro-pelvic balance, and spino-pelvic balance not only are the fundamental risk factors of slip progression, but also are the key factors to determine how to treat and influence the prognosis. Therefore, compared with Wiltse, Marchetti-Bartolozzi, and Mac-Thiong-Labelle classification systems of lumbosacral spondylolisthesis, SDSG classification based on these factors mentioned above, has better homogeneity between the subjects of subgroup, and better reliability, moreover, could better guide operative plan and judge the prognosis. Conclusion It is suggested that the SDSG classification system should be the standard classification for lumbosacral spondylolisthesis for the clinical and research work.
Objective To comprehensively investigate the incidence of resorption of lumbar disc herniation, and provide reference data for clinical decision-making. Methods Seven electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wangfang data and Chongqing VIP database) were searched for relevant studies that might have reported morphologic changes in lumbar disc herniation when reporting the follow-up results of patients with lumbar disc herniation treated non-surgically from inception to March, 2020. Articles were screened according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, and the total number of patients, number of patients with resorption, and other important data were extracted for analysis. Random effect models were used for meta-analysis, and subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis, meta-regression analysis, and Egger’s test were performed. Results A total of 15712 articles were identified from these databases, and 48 were eligible for analysis. A total of 2880 non-surgically treated patients with lumbar disc herniation were included in the meta-analysis, 1740 of whom presented resorption. Meta-analysis revealed that the incidence of resorption was 0.60 [95% confidence interval (CI) (0.46, 0.72)]. In subgroup analyses, studies that quantitatively measured the resorption of lumbar disc herniation yielded statistically higher pooled incidence [0.73, 95%CI (0.60, 0.85)] than those that used qualitative methods [0.51, 95%CI (0.34, 0.69)] (P=0.0252). The pooled incidence gradually increased in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) [0.50, 95%CI (0.15, 0.85)], non-RCT prospective studies [0.59, 95%CI (0.48, 0.70)] and retrospective studies [0.69, 95%CI (0.36, 0.95)], but the difference was not statistically significant (P=0.7523). The pooled incidence varied from 0.58 [95%CI (0.54, 0.71)] to 0.62 [95%CI (0.49, 0.74)] after the sequential omission of each single study. There was no significant change in the pooled incidence [0.62, 95%CI (0.43, 0.79)] when only low-risk RCTs and high-quality non-RCT studies were included, comparing with original meta-analysis results. Meta-regression showed that measurements partially caused heterogeneity (R2=15.34%, P=0.0858). Egger’s test suggested that there was no publication bias (P=0.4622). Conclusions According to current research, there is an overall incidence of resorption of 60% [95%CI (46%, 72%)] among non-surgically treated patients with lumbar disc herniation. The probability of resorption should be fully considered before making a decision on surgery.
Objective To compare the epidemiological status and trends of colorectal cancer in China and the United States, and to summarize the respective prevention and screening strategies. MethodsBased on relevant data such as the Global cancer statistics (2022), Cancer statistics (2025), the China Cancer Burden of Disease Report (2022), and the China-United States colorectal cancer epidemiology report, the incidence, mortality and trends of colorectal cancer in China and the United States were analyzed. ResultsFrom 2000 to 2018, age-standardized incidence rate of colorectal cancer in China increased by an average of 2.7% per year for men and 1.1% per year for women, with an average annual mortality increase of 1.2% for men and a decrease of 0.3% per year for women. Colorectal cancer mortality decreased by an average of 1.2% per year in the United States in 2011–2021 and by an average of 1.7% per year in 2013–2022, and the 5-year relative survival rate for colorectal cancer increased from 50% in 1975–1977 to 64% in 2014–2020. ConclusionsThe incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer in the United States have shown a downward trend, and the survival rate of patients is increasing. The situation in our country is different: the incidence continues to rise, the mortality is higher than the United States, and although the survival rate has improved, it is still not at the level of the United States. China continues to face a heavy burden of colorectal cancer. To enhance colorectal cancer prevention and treatment, it is essential to establish a new multi-stakeholder collaborative framework for disease control, ultimately forming a colorectal cancer management system with Chinese characteristics, thereby effectively reducing the national colorectal cancer disease burden.
ObjectiveTo analyze and compare the incidence, mortality, temporal trends, and cancer spectrum differences between China and the United States (US), providing theoretical support for cancer prevention and control in China. MethodsAge standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and cancer site composition were extracted from GLOBOCAN, Cancer Statistics 2025, the China Cancer Registry Annual Report, and other epidemiological sources. Spatial (urban-rural, sex specific) and temporal distributions were described, and average annual growth rate (AAGR) were calculated. ResultsFrom 2005 onward, China exhibited a modest rise in ASIR, whereas the US showed a decline (AAGR: 0.58 vs –0.42); nevertheless, China’s overall incidence remained lower (2022 ASIR = 201.61/100 000) than that of the US (303.60/100 000). Both countries experienced decreasing ASMR (AAGR: –1.03 vs –1.72). In both nations, male ASIR and ASMR were higher than female. Since 2005, the top three US cancers had remained prostate (men) or breast (women), lung and colorectal cancer. In China, incidences of lung, colorectal, female breast and thyroid cancers had continued to rise, while stomach and liver cancer incidences had declined yet still rank high among men. Urban ASIR in China exceeded rural rates, whereas rural ASMR was higher than urban counterparts. ConclusionsAccelerating population ageing and lifestyle transitions have driven an upward incidence trend in China, accompanied by a shift towards a mixed pattern of traditional and emerging cancer risks. Drawing on US experience, China should intensify tobacco control measures, expand organized screening and early detection programs, implement comprehensive interventions for priority cancers, strengthen primary level capacity and improve treatment access in rural areas, thereby establishing a more effective national cancer prevention and control system.
Objective To establish the control range of monthly nosocomial infection incidences in different departments and put them into practice, to provide a scientific and effective method for nosocomial infection control. Methods The surveillance data about nosocomial infection cases in Nanchong Central Hospital from January 2016 to December 2018 were used to set the warning limits and control limits in different departments based on the theory of medical reference range. From January 2019, the clinical departments would be alerted if their nosocomial infection incidences were beyond the warning limits, and investigated and intervened if the incidences were beyond the control limits. Results The control range of monthly nosocomial infection incidences in different departments had been made. For identifying risk events, the sensitivity was 83.3%, the specificity was 96.2%, the positive predictive value was 29.4%, the negative predictive value was 99.7%, the coincidence rate was 96.0%, and the consistency was medium (kappa=0.419, P<0.001). The effective rate of the initial alert intervention was 83.3%, and the effective rate of the field intervention was 100.0%. Conclusion The establishment and application of the control range of monthly nosocomial infection incidences in different departments can identify potential risk events and realize precise nosocomial infection control.
"Global cancer statistics 2022" based on the latest GLOBCAN data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) was recently released, providing a systematic analysis of the incidence and mortality of 36 types of cancer across 185 countries worldwide. The international burden of cancer is expected to continue to increase over the next 30 years, posing a severe public health and social challenge for many countries, including China. This article offers a key point interpretation of the "Global cancer statistics 2022", focusing on the evolution of cancer epidemiology and future development trends. The aim is to broaden the international perspective on cancer prevention and treatment, with the hope of providing reference and guidance for cancer prevention and treatment efforts in our country.
ObjectiveTo comprehensively evaluate the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) after colorectal surgery.MethodsWe searched PubMed/Medline, Web of science, and Embase databases by computer, collected studies by using the combination of corresponding English keywords. Then, we screened literatures according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, and evaluated the quality of literatures by using Downs and Black tools. Finally, we used Stata 15.1 and R Project 3.4.1 for meta-analysis.ResultsA total of 15 studies (n=721 730) were included in the meta-analysis. The combined incidence of VTE after colorectal surgery was 2.26% [95% CI was (1.93%, 2.61%), P<0.000 1], and the incidence of VTE after adjusting for publication bias was 1.82% [95% CI was (1.53%, 2.13%), P<0.000 1]. Meta regression analysis revealed that patients’ age (P<0.000 1), smoking (P=0.000 4), open surgery (P=0.020 0), preoperative albumin level (P=0.023 6), and malignant tumor (P=0.036 4) were correlated with the incidence of VTE after colorectal surgery, which may be potential factors for heterogeneity.ConclusionsThe incidence of VTE after colorectal surgery is not insignificant. It is necessary for clinicians to be vigilant about the occurrence of VTE after colorectal surgery and provide appropriate preventive interventions in combination with patients’ own risk factors, disease-related factors, and surgical factors.