Objective To study the influence factors of surgical site infection (SSI) after hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery. Methods Fifty patients suffered from SSI after hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery who treated in Feng,nan District Hospital of Tangshan City from April 2010 and April 2015 were retrospectively collected as observation group, and 102 patients who didn’t suffered from SSI after hepatobiliary and pancreatic surgery at the same time period were retrospectively collected as control group. Then logistic regression was performed to explore the influence factors of SSI. Results Results of univariate analysis showed that, the ratios of patients older than 60 years, combined with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, had abdominal surgery history, had smoking history, suffered from the increased level of preoperative blood glucose , suffered from preoperative infection, operative time was longer than 180 minutes, American Societyof Anesthesiologists (ASA) score were 3-5, indwelled drainage tube, without dressing changes within 48 hours after surgery, and new injury severity score (NISS) were 2-3 were higher in observation group (P＜0.05). Results of logistic regression analysis showed that, patients had history of abdominal surgery (OR=1.92), without dressing changes within 48 hours after surgery (OR=2.07), and NISS were 2-3 (OR=2.27) had higher incidence of SSI (P＜0.05). Conclusion We should pay more attention on the patient with abdominal surgery history and with NISS of 2-3, and give dressing changes within 48 hours after surgery, to reduce the incidence of SSI.
Abstract: Objective To investigate the method of improving effect, by investigating and analyzing the possible risk factors affecting shortterm outcome after total correction of tetralogy of Fallot (TOF). Methods Data of 219 patients who received total correction of TOF were divided into two groups according to the length of postoperative stay in hospital and recovery of heart function in the near future. Group A(n=110): patients had good recovery of heart function classified as gradeⅠorⅡ（NYHA classification）, and could smoothly be discharged from the hospital within two weeks without serious complications. The left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) had to exceed to 0.50 during 6 months followup visit. Group B(n=109): patients had worse recovery of heart function classified as grade Ⅱ or Ⅲ, and could not be discharged within two weeks with severe complications. LVEF was less than 0.50 during 6 months followup visit. The clinical data of two groups were compared, and risk factors affecting shortterm outcome after total correction of TOF operation were analyzed by logistic regression and model selection. Results There were good recovery of heart function classified as gradeⅠorⅡ(NYHA classification）in discharge, no death, and LVEF all exceeded to 0.50 in group A; there were 8 deaths in group B (7.34 %), and recovery of heart function was worse classified as grade Ⅱ or Ⅲ, with LVEF being less than 0.50（Plt;0.01）. Amount of postoperative daily thoracic drainage, assisted respiration time, time of inotropic agent stabilizing circulation, and the average length of postoperative stay in group A were all less or short than those in group B（Plt;0.01）. But the bypass and clamping time of group B were exceeded group A. The ratio of patching astride annulus in group B was greater than that in group A, and Nakata index was less than that in group A(Plt;0.01). The results of logistic regression and model selection indicate: age at repair (OR=0.69), oxygen saturation(OR=0.98), haematocrit before operation (OR=0.94), and patching astride annulus (OR=46.86), Nakata index (OR=16.90), amount of postoperative daily thoracic drainage (OR=0.84), presence of arrhythmia(OR=0.87), and wound infection(OR=63.57) have significant effect with shortterm outcome after total correction of TOF operation. Conclusions The probable methods to improving effect of shortterm outcome after total correction of TOF are an earlier age at repair, decreasing haematocrit, rising oxygen saturation before surgery, performing a palliative operation facilitating development of arteriae pulmonalis in earlier time, improving the surgical technique, and strengthening the perioperative care.
ObjectiveTo explore the risk factors for postoperative respiratory failure (RF) in patients with esophageal cancer, construct a predictive model based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-logistic regression, and visualize the constructed model. MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted on patients with esophageal cancer who underwent surgical treatment in the Department of Thoracic Surgery, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center Gansu Hospital from 2020 to 2023. Patients were divided into a RF group and a non-RF (NRF) group according to whether RF occurred after surgery. Clinical data of the two groups were collected, and LASSO-logistic regression was used to optimize feature selection and construct the predictive model. The model was internally validated by repeated sampling 1000 times based on the Bootstrap method. ResultsA total of 217 patients were included, among which 24 were in the RF group, including 22 males and 2 females, with an average age of (63.33±9.10) years; 193 were in the NRF group, including 161 males and 32 females, with an average age of (62.14±8.44) years. LASSO-logistic regression analysis showed that the percentage of forced expiratory volume in one second/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC) to predicted value (FEV1/FVC%pred) [OR=0.944, 95%CI (0.897, 0.993), P=0.026], postoperative anastomotic fistula [OR=4.106, 95%CI (1.457, 11.575), P=0.008], and postoperative lung infection [OR=3.776, 95%CI (1.373, 10.388), P=0.010] were risk factors for postoperative RF in patients with esophageal cancer. Based on the above risk factors, a predictive model was constructed, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.819 [95%CI (0.737, 0.901)]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test for the calibration curve showed that the model had good goodness of fit (P=0.527). The decision curve showed that the model had good clinical net benefit when the threshold probability was between 5% and 50%. Conclusion FEV1/FVC%pred, postoperative anastomotic fistula, and postoperative lung infection are risk factors for postoperative RF in patients with esophageal cancer. The predictive model constructed based on LASSO-logistic regression analysis is expected to help medical staff screen high-risk patients for early individualized intervention.
Erythemato-squamous diseases are a general designation of six common skin diseases, of which the differential diagnosis is a difficult problem in dermatology. This paper presents a new method based on virtual coding for qualitative variables and multinomial logistic regression penalized via elastic net. Considering the attributes of variables, a virtual coding is applied and contributes to avoid the irrationality of calculating nominal values directly. Multinomial logistic regression model penalized via elastic net is thence used to fit the correlation between the features and classification of diseases. At last, parameter estimations can be attained through coordinate descent. This method reached accuracy rate of 98.34%±0.0027% using 10-fold cross validation in the experiments. Our method attained equivalent accuracy rate compared to the results of other methods, but steps are simpler and stability is higher.
Objective To evaluate the risk factors for postoperative in-hospital mortality in elderly patients receiving cardiac valvular surgery, and develop a new prediction models using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-logistic regression. Methods The patients≥65 years who underwent cardiac valvular surgery from 2016 to 2018 were collected from the Chinese Cardiac Surgery Registry (CCSR). The patients who received the surgery from January 2016 to June 2018 were allocated to a training set, and the patients who received the surgery from July to December 2018 were allocated to a testing set. The risk factors for postoperative mortality were analyzed and a LASSO-logistic regression prediction model was developed and compared with the EuroSCOREⅡ. Results A total of 7 163 patients were collected in this study, including 3 939 males and 3 224 females, with a mean age of 69.8±4.5 years. There were 5 774 patients in the training set and 1389 patients in the testing set. Overall, the in-hospital mortality was 4.0% (290/7163). The final LASSO-logistic regression model included 7 risk factors: age, preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction, combined coronary artery bypass grafting, creatinine clearance rate, cardiopulmonary bypass time, New York Heart Association cardiac classification. LASSO-logistic regression had a satisfying discrimination and calibration in both training [area under the curve (AUC)=0.785, 0.627] and testing cohorts (AUC=0.739, 0.642), which was superior to EuroSCOREⅡ. Conclusion The mortality rate for elderly patients undergoing cardiac valvular surgery is relatively high. LASSO-logistic regression model can predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients receiving cardiac valvular surgery.
Objective To analyze the factors associated with the adoption of targeted therapy in patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive breast cancer and to generate evidence to inform decision-making on public security policy regarding innovative anticancer medicines for the benefit of patients. Methods The study population comprised female patients diagnosed with HER2-positive breast cancer and treated at Fujian Cancer Hospital from 2014 to 2020. The patients were eligible for targeted therapy. The demographic and sociological characteristics and clinical information of patients were extracted from the hospital information system. We performed binary logistic regression analysis of factors associated with the adoption of targeted therapy in patients with HER2-positive breast cancer. We also divided the participants into two groups according to their tumor stage for subgroup analysis. Results A total of 1 041 female patients with HER2-positive breast cancer were included, among them, 803 received targeted therapy. In September 2017, molecular-targeted medicines for HER2-positive breast cancer began to be included in the local basic health insurance program. Only 282 (35.1%) patients adopted targeted therapy before September 2017, after which this number increased to 521 (64.9%). Among the patients who adopted targeted therapy, most were formally employed (45.8%) and enrollees of the urban employee health insurance program (66.0%). Among those who did not adopt targeted therapy, most were unemployed (42.4%) and enrollees of the resident health insurance program (50.0%). Binary logistic regression analysis revealed that patient occupation, gene expression of estrogen receptor, tumor stage, surgery or not, radiotherapy or not, and undergoing treatment before or after September 2017 were correlated with the adoption of targeted therapy (P<0.05). Conclusions Inclusion of targeted medicines for HER2-positive breast cancer in the health insurance program substantially increased the overall administration of these therapies. Individual affordability is a critical factor associated with the application of targeted therapy in eligible patients. Future policies should enhance the public security of patients with a relatively weak ability to pay and provide insurance coverage for innovative anti-cancer medicines.
Objective To analysis correlation factors for preoperative sudden death of patients with type A aortic dissection in order to determine clinical management strategy.?Methods?We retrospectively analyzed clinical data of 52 patients with type A aortic dissection who were admitted in Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery of the Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University Medical School from January 2003 to January 2010. According to the presence of preoperative death, all the patients were divided into two groups, 9 patients in the preoperative sudden death （PSD）group including 7 males and 2 females with their mean age of 52.0±12.1 years；43 patients in the control group including 31 males and 12 females with their mean age of 51.5±10.9 years. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used for analysis of preoperative factors related to sudden death.?Results?Univariate analysis result showed 7 candidate variables：body mass index （BMI, Wald χ2=2.150, P=0.143）, time of onset （Wald χ2=2.711, P= 0.100）, total cholesterol （TC, Wald χ2=1.444, P=0.230）, low density lipoprotein cholesterol （L-C, Wald χ2=1.341, P=0.247）, aortic insufficiency （AI, Wald χ2=2.093, P=0.148）, aortic sinus involvement （Wald χ2=3.386, P=0.066）and false lumen thrombosis （Wald χ2=7.743, P=0.005）. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that BMI （Wald χ2=4.215, P=0.040, OR=1.558）and aortic sinus involvement （Wald χ2=4.592, P=0.032, OR=171.166 ）were preoperative risk factors for sudden death, and thrombosed false lumen （Wald χ2=5.097, P=0.024, OR=0.011）was preoperative protective factor for sudden death.?Conclusion?Type A aortic dissection patients with large BMI and/or aortic sinus involvement should receive operation more urgently than others and patients with thrombosed false lumen may have relatively low risk of preoperative sudden death.
ObjectiveTo evaluate the predictors of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) among teachers in 3 months after Lushan earthquake. MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted to diagnostically evaluate the psychological sequelae and GAD during 14-20 days and 85-95 days after the earthquake. The possible predictive factors of psychological sequelae were assessed by a self-made questionnaire and the GAD was assessed by the GAD symptom criterion of M.I.N.I. in 3 months. The univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis (ULRA, MLRA) were applied to analyze the predictors of GAD after the two-staged assessments. ResultsThere were a total of 319 teachers completed the two-staged assessments. The total response rate was 51.3%. Seventy teachers were diagnosed as GAD and the prevalence of GAD in 3 months was 21.9%. The predictive factors by ULRA included:male, older than 35 years old, having unlivable house, living in tents, sleeping difficulties, easy to feel sad, physical discomfort, loss of appetite, feeling short of social support, unable to calm down for working, feeling difficult for teaching, observing more inattention of students, and wanting to ask for a leave. The independent predictors by MLRA included:male, having unlivable house, feeling short of social support, and feeling difficult for teaching. ConclusionThe teachers have a higher likelihood of GAD after earthquake. It is essential to pay more attention to those male teachers, who feel short of social support and don't have a livable house thus to prevent the GAD at the early stage of post-earthquake.
Objective To approach the convenient prediction methods about surgical indications of adhesive ileus. Methods Two thousand and thirtyfour patients with adhesive ileus were analyzed retrospectively between January 1996 and January 2010 in the Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University， and 1 992 patients were included into this model. Seventeen factors which could influence the surgical decisions, including period of intestinal obstruction (X1), frequency of attack (X2), history of operation on abdominal region (X3), continuous and severe abdominal pain (X4), severe or frequent vomiting (X5), severe abdominal distention (X6), hemafecia (X7), fever (X8), heart rate (X9), shock or hypotension (X10), touching a swell ansa intestinalis (X11), hypoactive bowel sound (X12), peritonitis (X13), white blood cell (WBC) count of peripheral blood (X14), obstruction ansa interstinalis fixation and a severe expansion by abdominal erect position plain film (X15), peritoneal cavity free air (X16), and seroperitoneum whether or not by B ultrasonic examination (X17) were analyzed by binary logistic regression. Then prediction schedule whether patients with adhesive ileus needed emergency operation was gained by the theory of logistic regression analysis. Results Eight items were included in the prediction model by the method of forward stepwise which were X1, X2, X4, X9, X13, X14, X15, and X17, respectively. The probability of operation could be calculated by the following formula: logit(P)=expZ/（1+expZ）, where, Z={-7.813+〔-1.942×X1(1)/2.290×X1(2)/2.765×X1(3)〕+2.801×X2+2.692×X4+10.610×X9(1)/13.279×X9(2)+3.422×X13+〔-3.048×X14(1)/16.992×X14(2)〕+6.113×X15+2×X17}， which X1（1）, X1（2）, and X1（3） were periods of intestinal obstruction 3－5 d, 5－7 d, and ≥7 d, respectively. X9(1) and X9(2) were heart rates of 60－100/min and ≥100/min, respectively. X14(1) and X14(2) were WBC counts of peripheral blood of (10-20)×109/L and ≥20×109/L， respectively. The patient had to accept surgical procedure when the value of P was more than 0.5. The coincidence was 99.00%, sensitivity was 96.17%, specificity was 99.53% in 1 992 patients. The coincidence was 96.20%, sensitivity was 90.00%, specificity was 96.84% in 105 patients between January 2010 and April 2010 in this hospital. Conclusion The prediction schedule is a good useful value, but the coefficients is corrected following the cases increasing.